Monday, 10 September 2018
September kicked off with a strong week of trading. The markets picked up with much larger volumes than seen in recent weeks, both for wind and hydro production.
Nordic Hydro 2017 saw a major price jump, and is now trading above the 1.5 Euro mark. This is a massive 22% price increase from the August average price and it is driven by the lack of volumes available now that there are only 4 months left to trade 2017 GOs.
All the other trading years also continued their positive momentum. There is a growing premium for 2019 and 2020 Nordic Hydro production, driven by the hydrological situation in the Nordics. Sellers are holding back in fear of another dry summer next year, as they have already sold large volumes in the forward market. This combined with growing demand side interest has driven prices further above the 2 Euro threshold.
Wind GOs followed the positive trend of Nordic Hydro, and maintained its 10 cent premium on most production years.
The positive trend seen recently is expected to continue, and there seems to be no resistance around the 2 Euro threshold. We expect both prices and traded volumes to increase based on the current interest and momentum seen in GO markets after the summer lull.